SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
October was another great for month for sellers in Seattle.
The new report summarizing October activity shows year-over-year gains in pending sales, and prices.
The median price of a Seattle home is now $495,000 which is up 7% from one year ago when the median price of a Seattle home was $461,000.
There were 754 pending sales last month, which is up 10% from twelve months ago when 685 pending sales were reported.
SO WHAT HAPPENED TO SEATTLE REAL ESTATE IN OCTOBER?
In October there were 1,061 ACTIVE listings in the Seattle real estate market.
In October 754 homes went PENDING.
Which means that 1 out of every 1.4 homes on the market went pending in October.
This 1.4 ratio implies a 1.4 month supply of inventory.
The 1.4 ratio is a strong SELLER’S MARKET INDICATOR.
Any ratio under 3.0 is a seller’s market indicator.
Any ratio between 3.0 and 6.0 is a neutral market indicator.
Any ratio over 6.0 is a buyer’s market indicator.
The story remains LACK OF INVENTORY.
The 1,061 ACTIVE listings is 48% under our 10 year average for October inventory.
The October ten year moving average for inventory is 2,049 ACTIVE listings.
Also if we compare October 2014 to October 2013 we will note that even though inventory was low in October 2013 (1,230) it was even lower in October 2014 (1,061). Inventory is down 14% vs 2013.
Also please note that October was the 9th month in a row that the AVERAGE list price vs SALES price was 100% or more.
In the month of October the list price vs sales price was 100%.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER?
Historically INVENTORY peaks in the Seattle market in September and starts to come down in October, November and December. So you can expect inventory to decrease from the current level of 1,061. So there will be LESS TO CHOOSE FROM FOR BUYERS.
And because buyers will have less to choose from therefore I expect sales to slow from the 754 PENDING that we saw in October and expect the number of pendings in November to be somewhere in the high 600’s.
The past 4 months have had INVENTORY/PENDING ratios of 1.4 to 1.7 (a strong seller’s market) therefore I expect November to be the same since no leading indicator/parameter has really changed much over the past few months.
- Inventory remains historically low
- The Seattle economy is very strong with unemployment of approximately 4%
- Interest rates remain outstanding with fixed 30 year mortgages hovering around 4% USUALLY, I advise my sellers to wait until January to put their homes on the market rather than put their home on the market in November because USUALLY the Seattle real estate market slows down about a week before Thanksgiving and stay slow until about a week after New Year. HOWEVER, this year I advise my sellers to put their homes on the market now because the market remains VERY ACTIVE with historically low inventory and strong pent up demand. In 2012 and 2013 we had VERY STRONG NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER markets in Seattle.
November 2012 1 out of every 1.6 homes went sold pending
November 2013 1 out of every 1.5 homes went sold pending
December 2012 1 out of every 1.7 homes went sold pending
December 2013 1 out of every 1.4 homes went sold pending
Please see the graphs and charts below
If you have any questions or if I can be of any assistance please contact