If you haven’t heard, Windermere is now the Official Real Estate Company of the Seattle Seahawks. We have teamed up to #tacklehomlessness, benefiting YouthCare, a Seattle non-profit that provides services to homeless youth and has for 40 years.
Every time the Seahawks tackle an opposing player, Windermere will donate $100 to the charity.
Let’s hope for a lot of tackles in the upcoming season (can you believe the preseason is only a few short weeks away??).
Go Hawks!
It can be tough to get around in Seattle and on the Eastside. As we add hundreds of people per week to our expanding city, and even more to the whole area, the problem is not going to go away anytime soon. More-flexible work schedules and people working from home will certainly help, but in the coming years, as Link light rail expands, the value of properties around those light rail stops were expected to go up. But now there is a study that substantiates that!
Sound Transit has put forth an ambitious plan, called the Sound Transit 3 Plan, to extend Light Rail service throughout the Puget Sound area. The plan is currently receiving public feedback from a number of neighborhood meetings being held throughout the different neighborhoods that will be affected. The finalized plan may be on the ballot in November. All residents (not just homeowners – renters too!) need to be aware of the expansion plan, the timeline, and the bottom line. I encourage you to go to one of the live meetings if you are able to do so. Continue reading
With median sales prices continuing to rise (median sales prices for Seattle residential in February were 26.3% over February 2015 and 38.9% over February 2014). There is speculation about a bubble developing in the real estate market with over-inflated prices that are going to pop. Continue reading
Do you know how many construction cranes are towering over Seattle building our future offices, condos, and retail centers? 20? 25? Believe it or not, according to the Rider Levett Bucknall Crane Index, which produces the North American RLB Crane Index, there are 42 cranes hard at work, altering Seattle’s skylines.
The Crane Index is published twice a year. It tracks the number of fixed cranes in major cities across North America and is an indicator of the construction workload in an area. Residential projects currently make up less than half of the craned projects in the Seattle area (Lake Washington to West Seattle and Northgate to Boeing Field). The index does not include Bellevue and Everett. According to the Puget Sound Business Journal, the Boeing 777X facility has 17 cranes on site alone.
It is no secret that this has been the busiest construction period that Downtown Seattle has seen in over a decade. While the RLB Crane Index indicated that the number of cranes decreased in Seattle since their last report at the beginning of the year (by nine), the number is expected to increase again according to the Puget Sound Business Journal. A number of projects have recently broken ground or are in the permitting phase.
What does this mean for the Seattle real estate market?
I am excited for what Seattle’s economic future has in store! I predict demand will continue to be high in the coming years. What does this mean for you? Give me a call: (206) 226-5300 or send me an email: sold@windermere.com.
The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, made an historic, first state visit to the United States this past week, visiting the Seattle area along the way.
The president’s agenda for the rest of his U.S. jaunt include a working dinner at the White House with President Obama, state dinner at the White House, and then proceed to New York where he will participate in meetings at the United Nations.
To have the highest-ranking state official from the world’s most populous nation with the second highest GDP in the world ($11.2 trillion per year according to CNN. The US is first with $18.1 trillion) choose to visit our area on his first state visit is huge!
Below are some of the highlights from his trip to the Puget Sound:
Between aerospace, technology, and potential trade growth for the new Northwest Seaport Alliance between the Ports of Tacoma and Seattle, the Northwest, and especially the Puget Sound area, is poised to take full advantage of the opportunities for an expanded economy in China. The president didn’t go to Los Angeles. He didn’t go to San Francisco. Economically, I am very excited about how this has the potential to strengthen Seattle’s economy even further.
My clients have been asking me lately what is causing the huge inventory challenges that we are seeing right now in our real estate market. The number of homes for sale in Seattle and the surrounding area is not only historically low for this time of year, but the demand for this housing is causing prices to escalate rapidly, harkening back to the last housing surge we had before the housing market crashed. There is fear about Seattle developing a bubble. However, it is important to note that the conditions that caused the increases back in 2006-2007 are different than what causing this high demand today.
Back in 2005-2007, a good portion of the housing demand was caused by the ease of obtaining a loan. Not so today. Not only are lending standards much more stringent, but increases in population are one of the key driving factors in the demand for housing. Let’s take a look at what is happening in Washington and Seattle.
The new data provided by the Washington State Office of Financial Management (OFM) will come out in just a few days (June 30th). However, last year’s data released June 30th, 2014 showed that Washington State’s population increased by 85,800 between 2013-2014 (a 1.25% gain) which was the largest one-year increase since 2008.
OFM also indicated that migration from other states was the largest component of this increase (49,200 people net). Natural increases (birth minus death) accounted for the rest of the increase.
Additionally, 75% of the state’s population increase impacted the five largest metropolitan counties: Clark, King, Pierce, Snohomish, and Spokane due to the economic opportunities in those areas.
What is interesting is OFM also reported that 31,000 new housing units were added across the state. Even if you averaged two people per household, there is still a shortage of about 20,000 units. And that is just due to population!
Now let’s take a closer look at Seattle. Between 2010-2014, Seattle’s population grew by 31,840 people. In that same period, 14,823 housing units were added. Again, if we estimate two people per unit, that still gives us about a 2,000 shortage just within Seattle.
I am not concerned about a housing bubble right now. The demand we are seeing is a natural component of a strong economy and increases in population. However, if you have concerns, I would be happy to talk with you about those. Give me a call at (206) 226-5300 or send an email to sold@windermere.com.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, over the last five years in the Seattle Metro area, rents have increased a whopping 22.26% between whereas wages for 25-44 year olds (which comprise a good number of renters) only increased 15.3%. This time period reviewed was quarter 3 2009 to quarter 3 2014 for the rents whereas wages were reviewed 2009-2014. According to Dupre+Scott Apartment Advisors, that number is even more staggering when looking only at Seattle and since spring of 2013 – 18% higher.
This disparity along with comparisons to tech-driven job markets such as San Francisco have many wondering if Seattle could be the next city to jump on the rent control bandwagon.
According to the Puget Sound Business Journal, there was a town meeting at City Hall on April 23rd to discuss this hot topic and Mayor Ed Murray has even created a housing affordability task force to tackle the problem. The hurdle is a big one – rent control is currently illegal in Washington State.
Seattle Magazine reports that renters make up 52% of Seattle’s population, so the effects of such a law – or not passing a law – will be felt by the majority of Seattle’s residents. With the average market rent for a one bedroom, one bathroom apartment in the city of Seattle going for $1,445 per month, there are a number of renters and would-be renters who are going to have to start finding housing further away from the city center.
People for rent control point to issues like transportation that become a bigger challenge when workers cannot afford to live near where they work and have to commute in. However, those who oppose it indicate that rent control will hamper development and reinvestment in the buildings that may be in need of updating.
Whether you are a proponent of rent control or not, this debate and rent increases are driving some to turn to home ownership, even with the inventory shortages that challenging the real estate market.
However, the economics of it make sense. If you are paying $3,000 per month for a three bedroom apartment in Capitol Hill and you can buy a 3 bedroom home in Wallingford for $600,000 (even taking into account multiple offers driving up the price from $500,000 to $600,000), depending on your down payment, that mortgage and principle may only come to $2,300 per month. Add taxes and insurance on there and you might be at $2,800 per month. Remember, this is just an estimation, and prices vary, but if you are pounding your fist, hoping rent control is passed before your landlord decides to raise the rent again, you owe it to yourself to take a look at home ownership.
And remember! If you have a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, your monthly mortgage payment is your monthly mortgage payment – next year and 25 years down the road. Furthermore, you are building equity which could mean money in your pocket when you are ready to sell. Try doing that while renting!
I would be happy to give you additional information on how to make your housing dollars go further. Give me a call: (206) 226-5300 or send an email to: sold@windermere.com!
SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
The February real estate market continued to remain extremely hot for sellers!!
The new report summarizing February activity shows year-over-year gains in pending sales, and prices.
The median price of a Seattle home is now $490,000 which is up 9% from one year ago when the median price of a Seattle home was $450,000.
There were 604 pending sales in February, which is up 7% from twelve months ago when 565 pending sales were reported.
SO WHAT HAPPENED TO SEATTLE REAL ESTATE IN FEBRUARY?
In February there were 589 ACTIVE listings in the Seattle real estate market.
In February 604 homes went PENDING.
Which means that 1 out of every 0.975 homes on the market went pending in February.
This 0.975 ratio implies a 0.975 month supply of inventory.
The 0.975 ratio is a strong SELLER’S MARKET INDICATOR.
The 0.975 ratio for Seattle is the BEST RATIO I HAVE EVER SEEN IN MY 28 YEARS AS A REALTOR.
It is slightly better than last month’s ratio of 1.02
Any ratio under 3.0 is a seller’s market indicator.
Any ratio between 3.0 and 6.0 is a neutral market indicator.
Any ratio over 6.0 is a buyer’s market indicator.
The story remains LACK OF INVENTORY.
In February there were 589 ACTIVE listings in Seattle.
The 589 ACTIVE listings is 62% under our 10 year average for February inventory.
THE 589 ACTIVE listings is the 2nd lowest month ever. Slightly higher than the all time low which was set last month (January 2015) with 581.
The February ten year moving average for inventory is 1,554 ACTIVE listings.
Also if we compare February 2015 to February 2014 we will note that even though inventory was low in February 2014 (719) it was even lower in February 2015 (589). Inventory is down 18% vs 2015.
In the month of February the AVERAGE list price vs sales price for Seattle was 101%.
So the average home sold for 1% over the asking price.
Please see the graphs and charts below
If you have any questions or if I can be of any assistance please contact me.
Thank you,
Steve Laevastu
cell 206-226-5300
SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
The January real estate market continued to remain extremely hot for sellers!!
The new report summarizing January activity shows year-over-year gains in pending sales, and prices.
The median price of a Seattle home is now $500,000 which is up 16% from one year ago when the median price of a Seattle home was $432,000. HOWEVER, THE 16% JUMP IN PRICE MIGHT BE AN ANOMALY DUE TO ONLY 342 CLOSINGS IN JANUARY.
Because if we look at the data differently and compare the Seattle median sales price in 2014 of $478,000 to the Seattle median sales price so far in 2015 of $499,496 therefore I think the 16% jump is an anomaly.
MEDIAN SEATTLE JANUARY HOME PRICE PAST 10 YEARS
2005 = $390,000
2006 = $439,500
2007 = $459,950
2008 = $430,000
2009 = $391,000
2010 = $399,000
2011 = $365,000
2012 = $399,500
2013 = $444,599
2014 = $478,000
2015 = $499,496
There were 569 pending sales in January, which is up 17% from twelve months ago when 476 pending sales were reported.
SO WHAT HAPPENED TO SEATTLE REAL ESTATE IN JANUARY?
In January there were 581 ACTIVE listings in the Seattle real estate market.
THIS IS THE LOWEST NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS THAT I HAVE EVER SEEN IN SEATTLE REAL ESTATE IN MY 28 YEARS IN THE BUSINESS!!!
In January 569 homes went PENDING.
Which means that 1 out of every 1.02 homes on the market went pending in January.
This 1.02 ratio implies a 1.02 month supply of inventory.
The 1.02 ratio is a strong SELLER’S MARKET INDICATOR.
The 1.02 ratio for Seattle is the BEST RATIO I HAVE EVER SEEN IN MY 28 YEARS AS A REALTOR.
Any ratio under 3.0 is a seller’s market indicator.
Any ratio between 3.0 and 6.0 is a neutral market indicator.
Any ratio over 6.0 is a buyer’s market indicator.
The story remains LACK OF INVENTORY.
HISTORIC ALL TIME RECORD LOW INVENTORY FOR SEATTLE!!
The 581 ACTIVE listings is 61% under our 10 year average for January inventory.
The January ten year moving average for inventory is 1,465 ACTIVE listings.
Also if we compare January 2015 to January 2014 we will note that even though inventory was low in January 2014 (719) it was even lower in January 2015 (581). Inventory is down 24% vs 2015.
In the month of January the list price vs sales price was 100%.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY?
Inventory always bottoms out in Seattle on December 31st. And new inventory starts to hit the market on January 1st. HOWEVER, THE FIRST 5 WEEKS OF 2015 VERY LITTLE NEW INVENTORY HAS BEEN HITTING THE MARKET. I expect February inventory to increase slightly from the RECORD LOW INVENTORY OF 581 ACTIVE LISTINGS.
And because buyers still have very little to choose from I expect the pending units for January to come in around 550.
The past 6 months have had INVENTORY/PENDING ratios of 1.0 to 1.7 (a strong seller’s market) therefore I expect February to be the same since no leading indicator/parameter has really changed much over the past few months.
So expect February to be another great month for sellers with an inventory/pendings ratio of 1.0 to 1.7
And with the market being so out of equilibrium I expect the AVERAGE SALES PRICE TO LIST PRICE RATIO TO BE OVER 100%. I think it will come in at 101%
If you have any questions or concerns please feel free to contact Steve Laevastu 206-226-5300 sold@windermere.com
Please see the graphs and charts below
If you have any questions or if I can be of any assistance please contact me.
Thank you,
Steve Laevastu
cell 206-226-5300
sold@windermere.com
www.SeattleHomeGuy.com